The concept of this math mini spark is straightforward. The probability of an event happening is the number of times you expect that event to happen out of many tries. Probabilities always fall between 0 and 1.
Spark your thinking!
1. Set up your math mini spark recording page: #104: Probability
2. Make a chart like this on your recording page.
| Event | Probability→ Fraction | Probability→Decimal |
| P (yellow) | ||
| P (green) | ||
| P (not red) | ||
| P (green or orange) | ||
| P (blue) |
3.Watch this intro video. Pause the video @ 3:40 and record the probability of each of the events on the chart on your recording page. You can use a calculator for the decimals.
4. Copy this chart in your notebook. 
5. Number your recording page from 1-5. Read each example and record if it is experimental or theoretical. Scroll down to the bottom of this post to check your work. Add a star if it is correct or add in the correct answer.
Probability Puzzles: Theoretical or Experimental?
- A fair six-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling an even number? Is this theoretical or experimental probability?
- Sarah flipped a coin 50 times and got 28 heads. What is the probability of getting heads based on Sarah’s experiment? Is this theoretical or experimental probability?
- In a bag, there are 3 red marbles, 4 blue marbles, and 5 green marbles. What is the probability of picking a blue marble without looking? Is this theoretical or experimental probability?
- A weather station recorded that it rained on 12 out of the last 30 days. Based on this data, what is the probability that it will rain tomorrow? Is this theoretical or experimental probability?
- A spinner has 4 equal sections colored red, blue, yellow, and green. Jack spun it 40 times and it landed on red 8 times. What is the probability of the spinner landing on red based on Jack’s results? Is this theoretical or experimental probability?
6. Share your math mini spark recording page with your teacher/EY coordinator.
- A fair six-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling an even number?theoretical
- Sarah flipped a coin 50 times and got 28 heads. What is the probability of getting heads based on Sarah’s experiment? experimental
- In a bag, there are 3 red marbles, 4 blue marbles, and 5 green marbles. What is the probability of picking a blue marble without looking? theoretical
- A weather station recorded that it rained on 12 out of the last 30 days. Based on this data, what is the probability that it will rain tomorrow? theoretical * note since “tomorrow” hasn’t happened yet it isn’t experimental.
- A spinner has 4 equal sections colored red, blue, yellow, and green. Jack spun it 40 times and it landed on red 8 times. What is the probability of the spinner landing on red based on Jack’s results? experimental probability